Wednesday, September 15, 2004

Just a note on Wall Street economists

YAAAAAAARRRRRGGGGGHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

Here's what I mean. The formerly intelligent people at Lehman Brothers, who several months ago drank some kind of idiot juice, squatted down and, after much grunting, squeezed out this turd today:

The Manpower survey was unchanged at +20, the same level it has been at since the second quarter. This suggests that there will be little acceleration in the rate of job growth. However, because this survey only explains a small portion of the variation in payrolls, payrolls could still increase or decrease within a broad range relative to the last quarter. Nevertheless, this report provides further support to our view on payrolls –- we look for payrolls to average 170,000 during the fourth quarter.

Now put on your thinking caps, Drew Matus and Joe Abate, Lehman Brothers economists, because it's time for Fun With Logic!

In the second, third and fourth-quarter surveys, the Manpower Survey's seasonally adjusted "employment index" has held steady at exactly 20 (though the non-seasonally-adjusted numbers actually worsened in the fourth quarter).

As Drew and Joe point out, you can't make a one-to-one comparison between the Manpower Survey's index and the number of new non-farm payroll jobs counted every month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But, even accounting for that margin of error, you can't deny that the Manpower Survey's clear message is that corporate hiring plans have been the same, more or less, since April.

But those are just the plans, what companies promised or expected to do with hiring when asked, months in advance, by clipboard-toting Manpower employees. Here's what they actually did with hiring, as measured by the BLS' monthly growth in payrolls:

April: 324,000
May: 208,000
June: 96,000
July: 73,000
August: 144,000

Does that look very steady to you? Of course not.

Granted, the average of those 5 numbers is a tidy 169,000 -- almost exactly what Drew and Joe forecast.

But you can't just ignore the obvious deceleration in the numbers between April and July. You can't just ignore the fact that, while the 2Q average rate of job growth was 209,000, the 3Q average rate of growth slowed way down, to 108,000 -- in clear contravention of the Manpower survey's message of stability.

And we can't yet assume that August's number was the start of a new trend upward, which would be necessary to arrive at the job growth promised by Drew and Joe.

In other words, the Manpower survey does not at all "provide further support" for Drew and Joe's view on payrolls, which (I might add) has been consistently and woefully wrong every month but last month, when job growth somehow miraculously managed to meet the cowardly consensus on Wall Street, to which Drew and Joe have clung like tiny monkeys in the highest branch of a swaying baobab tree in a thunderstorm. Don't expect it to happen again, Drew and Joe!

Tuesday, September 14, 2004

Get in the boat, James Wolcott

I resisted Mr. Wolcott's blog for a long time. I figured I didn't have time for no frou frou, fancy-pants Van-i-tee Fair celeb-ri-tee blogger, no sir.

But I broke down and read it today and regretted that I'd delayed so long. He's brilliant. I defy you to read the last sentence of this rant without spitting coffee on your computer monitor:

Watching Cheney in inaction, a snapshot phrase popped into my head: "broken-down sidekick."

That's what our vice president is, a broken-down sidekick ready for a lawn sale.

Plopped there on the stage surrounded by loyalty-oathed Republicans--wife Lynne, the honorary den mother of The 'L' Word at his side--Cheney reminded me of Ed McMahon. Not the McMahon of the brassy, highflying Tonight Show years (though George Bush's mannerisms are clearly modeled on Johnny Carson's), but the Ed of the Jerry Lewis telethons and Larry King appearances. A slow-molasses Ed, consumed with bitterness against foes real and imagined, getting through each day on nothing but spite and chocolate eclairs stuffed in his mouth by his evil spouse.


Tracy Morgan voice\\Hilarious!//Tracy Morgan voice

Monday, September 13, 2004

Stuff I missed while I was away

Hello, imaginary readers. I'm back from the partly-sunny shores of South Carolina. Myrtle Beach, that is. Redneck Riviera.

Here are some of the things I apparently missed while I was on the beach.

Transportation meltdown

Some say New York City has the finest public transportation system in the United States, perhaps even in the whole world. Some also say Pat Buchanan has a lovely singing voice. Believe none of them.

From the New York Times:

Heavy rainfall caused by the remains of Hurricane Frances lashed the New York area today, flooding roads and Manhattan's intricate underground subway network at the peak of the morning rush hour. Hundreds of thousands of commuters were forced to overcome delays or negotiate alternative routes to work.

...

In Manhattan, announcements were blared into the cave-like warren of train lines that criss-cross under the city's streets, telling frustrated commuters standing four-deep at empty tracks that several lines were stalled completely or delayed. Those that did pull into stations were so jam-packed with commuters that embarking was impossible.

...

Dina Florez, a 22-year-old event planner for a marketing firm, did manage to catch the N train at 8:30 a.m., even though it was running on the R line heading to Manhattan.

But it stopped between 25th and 36th Streets. "We were stuck in the tunnel for an hour and 10 minutes," Ms. Florez said. "It was horrible. No one could tell us what was going on. People were crying. Some lady passed out."

Sounds fantastic. Similar bullshit happened in 1999, when Hurricane Floyd hit the area.

But I guess I can accept disruptions associated with major hurricanes every five years or so. No big whoop.

What I can't accept is the fact that any rainfall causes the entire system to seize up. It's to the point now that, if I have to use an umbrella on the way to the train, you can bet I'm going to spend the next hour of my life armpit-deep in sweaty strangers.

The inestimable* Jason Mulgrew put it very well:

I never thought I'd look at another human being and think, "So help me god, if you don't let me on this train, I will murder you with my bare hands and fucking eat you right here in front of all these people." I really think this should be a part of training for US Special Forces. Just before going into battle, they should load about 60 on them onto a subway car, make it go four stops (a half mile) in 45 minutes, all the while have people pushing, shoving, and grunting as they move in and out of the car. Then, let them out of the car, give them guns, and just let them go out. We would have the greatest empire the world has ever seen if we did this.


Something about a typewriter

Apparently, the Interblogweb has been ablaze with furious speculation about whether or not a piece of paper that apparently proves that Fuckhead in Chief didn't show up for his super-cushy National Guard duty in the 1960s is actually a fake, and you can prove it's a fake because the t's on it are crossed in a way that they never would have been in the 1960s or because there's a font in the memo that you can only get with Windows XP or because the letters in Dan Rather's name, if translated into Arabic and then rearranged, spell "Candy-Ass Liberal." I don't know. But I have learned a few things from briefly reviewing the "news" articles related to this "story:"

1. People who believe things they read in the Free Republic are douchebags.
2. "Reporters" in the "media" believe things they read in the Free Republic, and thus are douchebags.
3. George W. Bush is a fly-covered donkey anus.
4. John F. Kerry is also a fly-covered donkey anus.
5. This nation is going to hell, immediately to hell, without passing go or collecting $200.
6. I no longer care.

We are all going to die if John Kerry is elected

I'm very sorry I missed the important news, from our Vice President, the extremely evil and nifty Lord Cthulhu, that a John Kerry presidency (God forbid!) would result in horrific terror attacks, probably in which schoolchildren are implanted with uranium and turned into dirty bombs that reduce all theme parks, Build-a-Bear workshops, old folks' homes, nurseries, pre-schools and stores that sell big-eyed puppies into smoking, radioactive wastelands.

Thank you, Lord Cthulhu, for informing me of this! Fortunately, John Kerry will never be elected, because:

1. See lesson #4 in the previous section of this post; and
2. This nation loves it some sweet, sweet fear! Without Lord Cthulhu slithering and grumbling about, without a religious crackpot in the highest office in the land, without weekly terror alerts, without foreign policies that allow and encourage such friendly, stable nations as North Korea and Iran to build nuclear weapons, we won't know what to do with ourselves. We may screw around and do something dumb like elect a President who enjoys pizza and blow jobs, like the last President.

* -- I don't know what "inestimable" means, exactly. I think it means he can't be estimated.

Saturday, September 04, 2004

Bush speech, redux; Oh, and World O'Crap is my hero

I'll be gone for the next week or so, down in Myrtle Beach, where I'll try to soothe the psychic wounds done to me by relentless thinking about tax laws and Republicans and the like.

Before I go, though, I have to say that I'm feeling a little embarrassed by my previous post, in which I suggested that I might occasionally "like" our boy king.

I think my reaction to his speech was at least in part affected by the fact that my outrage receptors have just been totally worn out after a week of snarling hate from the right. I'm worn down, then the dumb bastard cries a little bit, and suddenly I'm sympathetic.

With a couple of days to think about it, I feel a little sick about being manipulated by his show of emotion. He can cry all he wants, but he sent those men and women to their deaths.

On top of that, he's spent the past week-- OK, the past three years -- standing on the rubble of the World Trade Center, using the deaths of thousands of my fellow New Yorkers to advance his career and his crazy-ass agenda.

So, actually, Dubya, I'm reminded that I don't like you very much at all. Never have.

Anyway, to start my vacation on a much lighter note, I offer up this take on Dubya's speech, from World O'Crap. Here's just a sampler:
During the past four years as your President, I have accomplished many great things. Most notably, 9/11.

We love our First Lady. It's the law.

My brothers and sister are my closest friends. I talk to them once every couple of months. However, I talk to Karen Hughes everyday. See, I pay her to be my friend, and to pretend that I have super powers, and to shut the hell up when I don't want to listen to her. That's why America is the greatest country on earth.

But I believe that the most solemn duty of the American president is to protect the American people. If America shows uncertainty and weakness in this decade, the world will drift toward tragedy. This will not happen on my watch. Again, I mean.

In a new term, we will lead an aggressive effort to enroll millions of poor children who are eligible but not signed up for the government's health insurance programs. Hey, we could have done it this term, but it's only medical care for kids, so who cares?

Three days after September 11th, I stood where Americans died, in the ruins of the Twin Towers. Where was I on Sept 11th, 12th, and 13th, you ask. None of your damned business!

Since that day, I wake up every morning thinking about how to better protect our country. And then I read the comic strips. Garfield is my favorite. I also like to glance at the sports section.
On and on it goes. Go read it. It will make you laugh, it will make you cry, it will make you forget about tax laws and Republicans.

Friday, September 03, 2004

Police State, part deux

I blurted out a half-baked semi-rant yesterday about how the police have been handling protesters at the RNC.

The Washington Post has now made my blood even boil-ier than before:

Several dozen of those detained said that they had not taken part in protests. Police apparently swept up the CEO of a puppet theater as he and a friend walked out of the subway to celebrate his birthday; handcuffed two middle-aged women who had been shopping at the Gap, and arrested a young woman as she returned from her job at a New York publishing house.

The story has many more examples of our bravest or finest or drinkingest, or whatever the hell they are, in action.

Boy, am I glad I didn't do something stupid like just swinging by MSG to see what was going on.

Bush's speech

OK, let me get this out of the way right now: Sometimes, I can't help but like George W. Bush.

Yes, he's mean-spirited and shameless and filled with a sense of arrogant entitlement. Yes, he has an adolescent pride in his own ignorance and impatience and provincialism.

But when he teared up last night talking about the families who've lost loved ones in the war, it felt genuine. He's probably a worse actor than Der Gropenator; I doubt he can cry on cue.

His obvious sense of being overwhelmed by the sacrifice these people have made is a feeling I share, just as he obviously shared my sense of frustrated rage in the days after Sept. 11.

But that just means he's a human being with a pulse, and lots of people are -- but lots of people are not qualified to be president of the United States, and this guy sure as hell doesn't deserve to be given another term in that job.

If you need proof, you need look no further than his speech last night.

Despite posting the worst job-creation record of any president since Herbert Hoover, he proposed nothing bold -- as had been promised -- or even particularly constructive. There was more warmed-over mush here than in a high-school cafeteria: For example, please explain to me how an "opportunity zone" is any different from the Clinton-era "empowerment zones?"

Please explain how your plan to privatize social security is any different from your last plan to do that, the one you proposed in 2000, which died on the vine. Please explain how bold of an idea it is to "lead a bipartisan effort to reform and simplify the federal tax code?" What does that mean? Will you form a committee or something? What will be the practical effect?

As Andrew Sullivan and others have noted, he trotted out an awful lot of spending programs, in addition to revenue-draining permanent tax cuts. I understand that Bush thinks his daughters are a pain in the ass, but does he really have to use out-of-control budget deficits to punish the rest of us, and our children, and our children's children, for the sins of Jenna and Barbara?

To be fair, Kerry has proposed a lot of spending and tax cuts, too, but at the very least he's not promising regressive tax shelters, and he'd raise the top tax rate, and he's expressed a willingness to curb his own plans and instill a little spending discipline, if necessary, to keep the deficit under control. Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Clinton did the same thing. This Bush has shown no such discipline. He's never met a pork spending bill he didn't like.

His heart wasn't really in all this economic stuff anyway. After all, fretting about the economy is for girlie men.

To try to coax the soccer moms back out from under the couch, where Zell Miller had chased them, he had no choice but to trot out such ancient chestnuts as "flex time" and "the soft bigotry of low expectations," but he was really chomping at the bit to get to the bloody, red meat of his speech: what passes for "foreign policy" in the Bush administration.

And there, this bold, forward-looking, transformational president offered ... more warmed-over mush.

Special delivery ... of freedom!

In fact, it's warmed-over, discredited, neo-con mush: we'll be delivering freedom and Democracy to the world, it turns out, whether the world wants freedom or not, because -- of course -- God wants us to:

I believe all these things because freedom is not America's gift to the world, it is the Almighty God's gift to every man and woman in this world.
And America is sort of like God's UPS man, delivering big packages of freedom to the world's doorstep.

The only problem with that is, the last place we delivered freedom to is still trying to kill us. With 140,000 of our troops bogged down there, how are we going to deliver freedom to other countries? Stern words? Brain waves?

And let's assume that, somehow, Jeffersonian Democracy does suddenly spring to life in Iraq. Is that going to infect the rest of the Middle East with Democracy Fever? I don't know. Let's take a look at the countries that neighbor another Middle Eastern democracy, Turkey:



Hmm... let's see: Syria, Iran and ... Iraq! Yep, looks like this spreading-democracy thing has a long track record of success.

Where's Poppy?

By the way, the future Mrs. Capt. Willard noticed last night the short shrift Poppy got in the speech. If you happened to be snuffling back tears of patriotic joy at the moment he was mentioned, you might have missed it:


I'm blessed with a sister and brothers who are my closest friends. And I will always be the proud and grateful son of George and Barbara Bush.

My father served eight years at the side of another great American, Ronald Reagan. His spirit of optimism and good will and decency are in this hall and are in our hearts, and will always define our party.

Yep, that's what Poppy contributed to the world: he spawned Dubya and "served" "at the side" of Reagan like a faithful sidekick.

Of course, on second thought, it makes sense for Bush to ignore the fact that his father was also a president, however briefly. After all, we're talking about a guy who flip-flopped, raised taxes and left Saddam Hussein in power. At RNC 2004, that's Kerry-like, treasonous behavior. They probably had to put a Hannibal Lecter mask on Zell Miller any time he got around Poppy, given that track record.

Warning: Iraq re-hashing

Speaking of crazy people, I do have to give Bush credit for wading into the quagmire of Iraq, a fairly taboo subject for much of the rest of the convention:

In Saddam Hussein, we saw a threat. Members of both political parties, including my opponent and his running mate, saw the threat, and voted to authorize the use of force. We went to the United Nations Security Council, which passed a unanimous resolution demanding the dictator disarm, or face serious consequences. Leaders in the Middle East urged him to comply. After more than a decade of diplomacy, we gave Saddam Hussein another chance, a final chance, to meet his responsibilities to the civilized world. He again refused, and I faced the kind of decision that comes only to the Oval Office, a decision no president would ask for, but must be prepared to make. Do I forget the lessons of Sept. 11 and take the word of a madman, or do I take action to defend our country? Faced with that choice, I will defend America every time.

I have to say, this is about as reasonable an explanation as anybody could possibly give for going into Iraq. I didn't think it was necessary at the time, and a lot of other people didn't think it was necessary, either, but I wasn't entirely sure about my opinion.

But there's also little doubt that members of this administration wanted to go into Iraq for months -- in some cases, years -- before Sept. 11, and that the tragedy gave them their excuse. And the administration's credibility about claims that Saddam had WMD was eroded by their relentless effort to misleadingly tie Saddam to al Qaeda and 9/11, in the absence of any evidence.

I doubt very seriously that the decision to go into Iraq was nearly as agonizing as it's described here, not only because of their obvious desire to do so, but also because they obviously believed the war would be a cake walk.

But they were wrong about that, as they were wrong about Saddam's weapons program and about Saddam's involvement with al Qaeda.

What's more, they were willfully, aggressively wrong about how to run "post-war" Iraq, and we and the Iraqis are paying for it with lives, limbs and treasure. Perhaps worse than this, the chaos in Iraq, including our disgraceful treatment of prisoners, has ruined our reputation and inspired a new generation of terrorists.

For how much of this is George W. Bush responsible? It's tough to say, but a guy who claimed he would be a "CEO president" needs to be treated like a CEO: he needs to be fired.

Update: Saletan reacts with a little more relish:

Recession. Unemployment. Corporate fraud. A war based on false premises that has cost us $200 billion and nearly a thousand American lives. They're all hills we've "been given to climb." It's as though Bush wasn't president. As though he didn't get the tax cuts he wanted. As though he didn't bring about postwar Iraq and authorize the planning for it. All this was "given," and now Bush can show up, three and a half years into his term, and start solving the problems some other president left behind.



Saletan's been knocking them out of the park lately.

Thursday, September 02, 2004

Barking mad.

Zell Miller is barking mad. He's barkier than those dogs on his porch.

This futile Googlebombing effort (since nobody's reading!) was inspired by Wonkette.

Dang. No aliens.

There's been some talk that the SETI@home project has found a signal that could be a transmission from aliens.

The SETI@home project debunks it.

Good thing. We wouldn't want some alien race to discover that we stood a good chance of making a French-looking, UN-loving, mild-wound-in-Vietnam-getting Massachussetts flip-flopper the most powerful man on the planet, now would we?

Police state

An Indian journalist gets detained at MSG for no apparent reason.

Tourists and onlookers are swept up in a spur-of-the-moment dragnet at the library, again for no apparent reason.

Protesters are being held for 40-48 hours, well past the legal limit, again for no apparent reason.

Welcome to George W. Bush's America, where this guy --



... is considered inspirational.

(AP photo)

Talk about low expectations...

While we're having fun with transcripts, I thought this little exchange between Jeff Greenfield and Andrew Card on CNN's pre-speech round-table last night was interesting, too:

GREENFIELD: Andy, while we wait perhaps for your boss to show up, job figures are supposed to come out, I think, at the end of this week. Advance word is they are not going to be good. Candidly, is the economy not the soft underbelly of your reelection effort?

CARD: Well, I actually feel that the president put a solid foundation, and the economy and is building on that foundation. It was a foundation of tax cuts, and it was a foundation that had to correct for the corporate governance scandal that we had. And all of that made for an opportunity for to us grow. I actually think the jobs numbers will still show growth, so we won't dip into the negative range. They will show growth.


"Advance word?" I didn't think anybody got an advance peek at the jobs report, except for maybe the president and Alan Greenspan. Could Greenfield be referring to the fairly mediocre level of payroll jobs anticipated by the consensus forecast on Wall Street, about 150,000 or so?

Doesn't sound like it -- the way Greenfield and Card are talking sounds as if it will be worse than that.

In fact, Card's statement would seem to imply that the payroll figure will be extremely bad. Could he be trying to lower expectations, so that when a mediocre number comes, it looks better?

Joe Scarborough talks sense

Last night, the "journalists" on Chris Matthews' panel giggled with glee at the brutality of the speeches by Miller and Cheney:

JON MEACHAM, MANAGING EDITOR FOR “NEWSWEEK”: If I taught at the Kennedy School, I would take these two speeches as urtext of partisan rhetoric.

I think it was a brilliant tactical night, one of the most brilliant in the age of television.


It somehow took Joe Scarborough to inject some sense into the proceedings:

SCARBOROUGH: I find it remarkable.

We are three days into this convention, and we have been talking all year about how this election is going to be about George W. Bush. The Republicans, with their ad campaigns, the third-party attacks, this convention, three nights into this convention, this convention remains about John Kerry.

I can‘t remember a major presidential election where you have an incumbent that makes the central focus of their convention about the other guy, about the challenger. It is a radical departure from politics as usual. And what does it say about what they think George Bush has done over the past four years, and, more importantly, what the American people think of George Bush?


It says they're worried. And let's hope they've got good reason to be worried.

Zig Zag Zell

As if his foaming at the mouth on national television and challenging Chris Matthews to a duel didn't convince you, here's another reason to doubt that Zell Miller has any credibility whatsoever:

My job tonight is an easy one: to present to you one of this nation's authentic heroes, one of this party's best-known and greatest leaders – and a good friend.

He was once a lieutenant governor – but he didn't stay in that office 16 years, like someone else I know. It just took two years before the people of Massachusetts moved him into the United States Senate in 1984.

In his 16 years in the Senate, John Kerry has fought against government waste and worked hard to bring some accountability to Washington.

Early in his Senate career in 1986, John signed on to the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Deficit Reduction Bill, and he fought for balanced budgets before it was considered politically correct for Democrats to do so.

John has worked to strengthen our military, reform public education, boost the economy and protect the environment.


Amazingly enough, this is still posted on Zell Miller's web site.

Link via Atrios and others.

But we have all these tokens!

Larry King burnished his SCLM street cred last night with a mostly blue-state panel, including BET Nightly News anchor Jacque Reid, MTV news guy Gideon Yago, UNIVISION anchor Jorge Ramos and political guru David Gergen.

Unbalanced? Maybe, but it was a refreshing change from the GOP-fest on Charlie Rose, MSNBC and, of course, Fox News.

I mean, it's not too quaint to suggest that somebody has to give an opposing viewpoint somewhere on cable, is it?

Anyway, an interesting exchange took place during the call-in session, when a woman complained to Reid about how minorities all flock to the Democrats:

CALLER: I'm a registered Democrat but and Jacque your -- your audience is predominantly black and I don't understand what they -- what your audience does not understand. President Bush, who is Condoleezza Rice? Who is Colin Powell and the head of education for the United States is black. How can they say that President Bush is not inclusive of the black race? How can they say he -- he does not try and help the black race?

KING: Before she...

CALLER: And did he not nominate -- this is for Jorge and Jacque, did he not nominate minority judges and who filibustered against them? Who stopped their nomination, the Democrats and I never hear anyone saying anything about it.

KING: All right. We'll start with Jacque and then Jorge -- Jacque.

REID: Well, to answer the question I think that a number of African Americans, the majority, look at the issues. They don't look at things like who is serving in the president's cabinet according to the polls that we've done and other polls that are out there will support this.

A number of African Americans, you know, the Census Bureau just put out poverty numbers, under insured, jobless rate for African Americans is twice that of the rest of the country. When you look at so many social ills that are out there, that resonates with African Americans.

They don't see the Republican Party doing enough and not just with those issues but issues that touch the hearts of African Americans like disenfranchisement when it comes to voting, like affirmative action, like the criminal justice system and the...

KING: So, they don't see -- they see Condoleezza Rice and Colin Powell and the secretary of education as just what?

REID: Well, they think it's wonderful, I think. We looked at the most popular African American figures and Colin Powell was number two. They -- but...

KING: Who was number one?

REID: Jesse Jackson. Jesse Jackson was number one.

KING: Jorge, what about there were many, were there not, Latino judges nominated, held up?

RAMOS: Well, what we can say for sure is the following. Mel Martinez (ph) was the housing secretary with President Bush. Rosario Marin was the treasurer. Hector Barreto works with the Small Business Administration. So, definitely President Bush has been working with Latinos.

But more than blaming President Bush because he has really made an effort to reach the Hispanic voters, I think the problem that many Hispanic voters have is with the Republican Party. This is a party that many Latinos link with Proposition 187 in California, of course, against undocumented immigrants.

This is a party that many Hispanics relate with Pete Wilson, who also has taken many positions against undocumented immigrants. This is a party that has among their members Tom Tancredo, the Congressman of Colorado that constantly criticizes both undocumented and legal immigration.

So, it is very difficult to talk about an inclusive party when still the perception that this is a party that does not accept immigrants and among the many Hispanics is widely seem among many Latinos.


Very nicely done by both Reid and Ramos. The GOP can run its handful of minorities in front of the camera as much as it likes; it's not fooling anybody.

Fire bad!



No, they don't care about the undecideds any more, do they?

That was the conclusion of several pundits last night. The general idea is that the ranks of the undecided are so thin and so likely to break for Kerry that their only hope is to try to get their base as energized as the Democrats are. Zell Miller did a lot to move that ball forward, Cheney a little less so.

It will be interesting to see what Bush does tonight. So far, the economy hasn't been mentioned at all, with the exception of calling economic critics "girlie men," an attempt to inoculate the president against bad econ numbers, but one that would seem to appeal only to people who operate on the emotional level of a 12-year old -- which is to say, many Bush supporters.

Bush will have to mention the economy some -- his campaign has promised as much, anyway. I'm sure he'd rather not mention it at all, but he has to offer new programs to prove he has the "vision thing."

I'm still not sure what to expect on that front. It may be the case that he'll want to keep the ideas fairly small, in order to keep the econ talk to a minimum, because it's anything but his strong point, to say the least.

But a new, bold tax-reform proposal would throw red meat to the base, for sure.

Updated to add: There's a Wall Street Journal article today by Harwood and Hitt saying Bush is still trying to appeal to undecideds, a group they believe is actually leaning to the GOP:

Bush aides suggest that an interest in details is one important characteristic in a candidate for the narrowing group of undecided voters, now estimated by some in the Bush campaign to be as few 6% of those likely to go the polls.

Bush aides say their polls and focus groups suggest the group tends to be consist of moderate to conservative, generally white voters who are likely to be churchgoers. In other words, they have the profile of potential Bush voters.


Odd. That's the exact opposite of what was said last night on CNN -- I believe it was a panel for News Night with Aaron Brown, which actually included John Harwood. The transcript is not available yet, so I can't be sure about that, but if that's so, it's odd that Harwood didn't mention the conclusion of his article. Could it be he doesn't know what the hell he's talking about?

Anyway, the article goes on to say that Bush's polling -- wait, I thought he didn't do that! -- shows that these undecideds also like to hear about specific policy proposals, which is why Bush will lay some out tonight.

It's also why Kerry probably really fucked up by not talking about specifics during the convention.

(That's an AP photo, by the way.)

The new face of the GOP



Oh, well. So much for the undecideds.

(AP photo)

Wednesday, September 01, 2004

Tony Soprano to GOP: Drop dead

From Salon (subscription required, or just watch an ad):
Then James Gandolfini came before the crowd and spoke briefly and pithily. "I can't tell you how mad I am these people are in my city," the actor who plays Tony Soprano bellowed, pointing backward at Madison Square Garden. "I can't tell you how mad I am it took Bush four days to get here after 9/11." And the crowd of New Yorkers -- sheet metal workers, transportation workers, teachers -- erupted.

Vulva puppets!




'Nuff said.

Things are great!

From Market News International (sub required, and I don't have one yet -- a friend sent the story):

"U.S. pawnbrokers are reporting a rise in the number of people seeking loans to make critical payments for doctors and utility bills -- and more shoppers hunting down bargains, signs of a struggling economy this summer.

"Most pawnbrokers regard their business as counter-cyclical in that they tend to see more activity when things slow -- as long as they don't slow too much, when all get hurt.

"But among pawnbrokers who see their business moving in a more direct line with the economy's ups and downs, there is also marked evidence of an economy adrift again.

"Either way, pawnbrokers paint a picture of Americans swimming in bills and finding it tougher to pare down debt."

Uh-oh.

This couldn't have anything to do with rising poverty, weak income growth and weak job growth, would it?

Oh, wait, sorry -- I was almost feeling girlie for a second there.

Ben Ginsberg, right-wing bloggers: girlie men all

Benjamin Ginsberg, partisan hack at law, whines and cries about his unfair treatment in the press, and the right-wing blogosphere is there to help him to the fainting couch.

At a loss for words

What can I say about Der Gropenator's speech?

I mean, is snark even possible in this situation?

We're talking about an action-movie star, already wealthy beyond the wildest dreams of most Americans and married into one of the wealthiest families in the nation, wagging his Austrian finger at us and informing us that any complaints about the current state of the economy can only possibly be coming from faggotty "girlie men."

There's really no way to approach this, except to shake your head in awe at the spectacle of it.

He even talked about "terminating" terrorism!

Have I finally had a nervous breakdown? Did I wake up in a Simpsons episode?

Others have managed to keep their heads and have done a better job than me: non-girlie-men such as Max Sawicky and Michael Berube. Oh, and of course Fafblog.


Couldn't happen to a nicer team.

I do think it was unfair of the Browns to go for two when they were already up 20-0.