On the SOTU Audience

OK, I got the info from Gallup. This was, in fact, one of the most partisan audiences in years:

In 2005, the audience was 52-25-22 in favor of Bush's party (vs. Dem and Ind.).
In 2004, the audience was 46-26-28
In 2003, the audience was 40-28-31
In 2002, the audience was 50-25-25

For Clinton:
In 1999, the audience was 40-28-32
In 1998, the audience was 37-30-31
In 1995, the audience was 33-33-34
In 1994, the audience was 41-26-32

In a pre-speech report, Gallup said:

"[A]mid all the pageantry and fanfare associated with the occasion, State of the Union addresses generally do little to help boost a president's ratings. That may be because of the fact that a president's partisan supporters are much more likely to watch the event than are supporters of the opposition party." [Emphasis added.]

"In the 23 cases analyzed here, there are 12 instances in which a president's post-State of the Union approval rating was lower than his rating before the speech, 9 when it was higher, and 2 in which there was no change."

Note: one of the rare exceptions was Bill Clinton's 1998 speech, after which he got a 10-point jump in approval rating, the biggest such bounce since Gallup started keeping track in 1978. You'll also note that the 1998 speech was the last one in which the percentage of viewers from the opposing party broke 30.

Gallup's conclusion:

"Bush has an ambitious second-term agenda, and public support will be a key in getting his proposals passed. However, because those who tune in to hear the speech will skew Republican, it is likely that a disproportionate amount of the viewing audience will already support the Bush agenda."

I rest my case. I'm still nervous.