Wish I'd told you so...

I regret only saying that the consensus forecast of 250,000 or so jobs in July was shaky.

In fact, the forecast was in a whole other universe. Job growth came in at 32,000. Prior months were revised down sharply. Job growth has averaged a measley 106,000 in the past three months, and it's been decelerating every month since peaking out in March.

The Kudlows of the world are predictably pointing to the improvement in the household survey, but our press corps, surprisingly, aren't biting too awfully much. Perhaps that's because even they understand that this tired old chestnut got sent to the glue factory a long, long time ago, as DeLong explains.

The fact of the matter is that the job market has unmistakably slowed in recent months. What impact will it have on consumer confidence, which has been rising amid the slowdown? I believe confidence is lagging, though I have no real data to back that up. Maybe I'll try to go find some.

In the meantime, Tuesday brings the ABC/Money weekly consumer confidence poll, and Friday brings the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment number for August. These may be critical reports for judging how the electorate is feeling.

Or they may not. Sadly, the more reliable report, from the Conference Board, isn't due out 'til Aug. 31.

But I find it difficult to believe that consumers will react positively to bad news from the stock market, record high oil prices, bullshit terror alerts, violence in Iraq and two straight months of bad jobs numbers.